Simulation of Project Completion Time with Burr XII Activity Distribution

Project Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) in conjunction with Monte Carlo simulation is no doubt a useful and an acceptable tool for the analysis of project networks. However, a common challenge in practice is the inability to confidently select appropriate input distribution to represent activity durations owing to scarcity of project network data. A pilot survey of bore hole drilling projects in Benue state, Nigeria revealed that most activity duration data do not follow the Beta distribution and some other commonly used activity duration distributions. Hence, the Burr XII distribution is introduced as input activity duration distribution in the simulation of stochastic project network. Some desirable properties that qualify the use of Burr XII distribution are also presented. Results obtained using the Burr XII activity duration distribution shows advantage over the traditional PERT-Beta.